Global Diplomacy in the New Cold War with China
by Robert Davi
Foremost & First
As President Tsai Ing-wen began her inaugural speech, it covered many issues but primarily focused on cross-Straits relations with China. President Tsai Ing-wen repeated words such as “peace,” but she also made it clear she intends to lead Taiwan toward developing closer ties to the U.S. This all while taking place amid mounting tensions between China and the U.S.
All of this diplomatic maneuvering is occurring while Chinese fighter jets continue to harass U.S. reconnaissance aircraft by my count at least nine times over the past months along with aggressive moves towards the Japan-based guided-missile destroyer USS Mustin last month.
As countries are focusing their attention inward due to the COVID-19 pandemic, China continues to push outward. We all need to remain skeptical about the Communist Nation’s sincerity and calls for unity at the World Health Assembly 73 while they continue to intimidate and bully others.
Beijing believes that the leaders of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have strategically miscalculated the current political environment. The Taiwan DPP believes the U.S. view of China as its main strategic competitor will help them seek Taiwan secession.
One senior-party official stated, “While they Taiwan act as a pawn for President Trump, they want to use the U.S.’s support to complete a decoupling with the mainland and be included in some sort of U.S. security alliance like a NATO member. China will never allow that to happen.”
The official went on to say, “Taiwan is unwilling to face the fact that a one-China principle is one of the most important cornerstones of the new China world order. And that even the U.S. dare not openly deny this. Taiwan arrogantly thinks they could seek secession with its little strength.”
Beijing is feeling empowered by partial global support regarding their efforts in response to COVID-19. China thinks that Taiwan’s strategic space is pretty small, and they are maneuvering in a small pond that has the cracks of China-US relations, but mistakenly Taiwan thinks it as a big river or sea. As we have seen in the past few days, the U.S.led by President Trump is not pulling back from Chinas aggressive stance. He is doing just the opposite. The recent deployment of “OUR BIG STICK” USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) is a massive direct response to Chinas posturing. China needs to understand President Trump has the biggest Stick in the WORLD! The United States Military and its brave men and women!
Democracy is difficult; you have to want it! President Tsai Ing-wen knows full well that “Taiwan democracy” for the people of Taiwan will be difficult. China will continue to loom just across the sea and will covertly attempt undermining any official Taiwanese recognition around the World as an independent nation.
There are three things that President Tsai Ing-wen will need to face.
First, President Tsai Ing-wen will have to fight with the World led by the U.S. against a global political structure in which there is only one China.
Second, Taiwan, as an island, has to be cautious as the U.S. works to contain China. China will not attack the U.S. directly because they are 胆小鬼 (dǎnxiǎo guǐ) COWARDS. However, China will become more aggressive towards Taiwan attempting to provoke an incident during this “New Cold War.”
As one Chinese senior Military official told me,
“In the game in which two elephants – China and the U.S. – fight, Taiwan is not a tiger or a hyena, but an ant. It needs to act very cautiously, rather than being provocative.”
Third, As the U.S. is ratcheting up its response to China by flexing its military strength between the two in the Taiwan Straits, the Taiwan DPP needs to hold steady a posture that the U.S. will be able to support Taiwan and prevent provocative Chinese actions with military means.
President Trump and President Tsai Ing-wen need to stay focus on the internal affairs of the island. The U.S. and Taiwan combined have the ability to alter the political and military pattern in the Taiwan Straits.
President Trump is sending a big message of Global Diplomacy and support to Taiwan and a warning to China.